Look For Bond Alternatives
In low-interest environments, bonds just dont pay well.
In my own quest for financial independence and early retirement, Ive looked elsewhere for passive income sources. Beyond rental properties, I also invest for real estate cash flow in other ways. I buy shares in real estate crowdfunding platforms such as Fundrise and Streitwise. I buy public real estate investment trusts . I invest in hard money loans secured against real estate, both directly and through platforms like Groundfloor.
Go beyond real estate and look to stocks as well. Check out exchange-traded funds that offer high dividend yields for ongoing income.
How The Fed Funds Rate Is Set
The federal funds rate is set eight times per year by the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee . In addition to these eight annual meetings, the FOMC can also call emergency meetings to immediately change the rate during times of crisis.
When the FOMC sets interest rates, they set a target rate rather than the actual interest rate, as they don’t have direct control over interest rates. Once the target rate is set, the Federal Reserve engages in open market operations to hit that target. This entails buying and selling government securities such as treasury bills, bonds, and repurchase agreements to manipulate the supply of money in the economy, which in turn influences interest rates.
When the Fed buys up government securities, they inject money into the economy. Subsequently, banks have more cash on hand, and they decrease their interest rates to attract more borrowers. On the other hand, when the Fed sells government securities, they take money out of the economy. Banks then have less cash to lend, so they increase interest rates.
How High Will Interest Rates Go
The Fed has been aggressively raising interest rates in an effort to fight high inflation. Inflation has hit a 40-year high, driven by strong consumer demand for both goods and services. This demand has outpaced the ability of businesses to deliver, putting upward pressure on prices. By raising rates, the Fed is hoping to cool off demand by making it more expensive to borrow money. The goal for the Fed is to stop high inflation without potentially plunging the economy into a recession.
According to Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, the central bank expects to raise rates by another 1.25 percentage points this year, bringing the benchmark rate to 4.4%. This is 1 percentage point higher than what it had expected in June. Rates are expected to rise in 2023 to 4.6% and decline to 2.9% by the end of 2025. Even though the high rates may slow down the economy, Powell states that inflation is a top priority and must be dealt with aggressively.
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Here’s What Higher Interest Rates Mean For You
Raising interest rates means buying a car or a home is more expensive, since you’ll pay more in interest. Higher rates could make it more expensive to refinance your mortgage or student loans. Moreover, the Fed hikes will drive up interest rates on , meaning that your debt on outstanding balances will go up.
Securities and crypto markets can also be negatively impacted by the Fed’s decisions to raise rates. When interest rates go up, money is more expensive to borrow, leading to less liquidity in both the crypto and stock markets. Investor psychology can also cause markets to slide, as cautious investors may move their money out of stocks or crypto into more conservative investments, such as government bonds.
On the flip side, rising interest rates could mean a slightly better return on your savings accounts. Interest rates on savings deposits are directly affected by the federal funds rate. Several banks have already increased annual percentage yields, or APYs, on their savings accounts and certificates of deposit in the wake of the Fed’s rate hikes.
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The Fed’s Current Goals
While the Fed’s goal is to support the economy as it continues to rebound from the coronavirus pandemic, it also aims to combat the effects of elevated inflation.
The nation’s central bank uses its Federal Open Market Committee to make these decisions. It meets eight times per year to discuss current conditions and decide what actions to take.
The committee had attempted to reach a point where inflation averages 2% over the long term by allowing inflation to rise moderately above 2% in the short term.
The fed funds rate is critically tied to the U.S. economic outlook. It directly influences prevailing interest rates such as the prime rate and affects what consumers are charged on credit cards, loans, and mortgages.
The fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other to lend Federal Reserve funds overnight. The nation’s central bank uses it in addition to other tools to promote economic stability by raising or lowering the cost of borrowing.
How Higher Rates Affect Borrowers
Mortgage rates are already higher. Even though 15-year and 30-year mortgage rates are fixed and tied to Treasury yields and the economy, anyone shopping for a home has lost considerable purchasing power, in part because of inflation and the Fed’s policy moves.
Along with the central bank’s vow to stay tough on inflation, the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 7%, up from below 4% back in March.
On a $300,000 loan, a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage at December’s rate of 3.11% would have meant a monthly payment of about $1,283. Today’s rate of 7.08% brings the monthly payment to $2,012. That’s an extra $729 a month or $8,748 more a year, and $262,440 more over the lifetime of the loan, according to LendingTree.
The increase in mortgage rates since the start of 2022 has the same impact on affordability as a 35% increase in home prices, according to McBride’s analysis. “If you had been approved for a $300,000 mortgage in the beginning of the year, that’s the equivalent of less than $200,000 today.”
For home buyers, “adjustable-rate mortgages may continue to be more popular among consumers seeking lower monthly payments in the short term,” said Michele Raneri, vice president of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion. “And consumers looking to tap into available home equity may continue to look towards HELOCs,” she added, rather than refinancing.
“That can be an absolute godsend for folks struggling with card debt,” he added.
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The Federal Funds Rate Throughout History
The fed funds rate is dynamic, rising and falling as the Fed responds to changes in the economy. The FOMC holds eight policy meetings every year, at which they survey the economic landscape and vote on whether to hold fed funds steady or change the rate.
Over the last 50 years, the federal funds rate has ranged from a low of 0% to a high of 20% as the FOMC attempted to manage the economy.
- Fed Funds Rate High: 20%. In 1980, feds fund soared to 20% to battle double-digit inflation. Higher interest rates typically curb borrowing and spending as the cost of accessing lending and credit rise for consumers and businesses.
- Fed Fund Rate Low: 0%. In 2008, the Federal Reserve lowered the fed funds rate to 0%, to revive the economy during the Great Recession. It did so once again in 2020 to minimize the economic fallout from the Covid-19 crisis. Lower rates make lending and credit easier for borrowers to get, which spurs consumer and business spending and grows the economy.
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The Federal Reserve And Your Money
The Fed was set up to help the United States economy run smoothly by keeping an eye on several economic indicators, such as unemployment, consumer prices, and gross domestic product .
But when things dont look so hot in the economy, the Fed can tailor its monetary policy to encourage or discourage people from borrowing, spending, and investing. This year, for instance, the Federal Reserve has been trying to combat skyrocketing inflation by raising interest rates.
The issue is the Feds tightening is not working as intended so far and has had a ripple effect throughout the entire economy, says Sara Kalsman, a certified financial planner at Betterment, one of the largest robo-advisors for online investing.
Inflation is still high and interest rates are rising, putting Americans in a tough situation financially. That could have the effect of slowing down demand and spending for both consumers and businesses, says Kalsman.
Its difficult to predict how long this inflationary environment is going to last, but a lot of folks are concerned, Kalsman says. This is going to directly affect consumers through higher credit card rates, higher interest on car and business loans, and eventually mortgages as well.
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What Is The Federal Funds Rate
The term federal funds rate refers to the target interest rate set by the Federal Open Market Committee . This target is the rate at which commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. The FOMC, which is the policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System, meets eight times a year to set the target federal funds rate, which is part of its monetary policy. This is used to help promote economic growth.
The Objectives Of The Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gives the US Federal Reserve three main goals:
- Maximum sustainable employment
To understand these better, we can examine them one by one.
Maximum sustainable employment
The level of unemployment in an economy is an important factor in determining its productivity and the happiness of its citizens. Every economy has a natural rate of unemployment, which is defined by economists asthe rate of unemployment that is compatible with a steady inflation rateor the rate of unemployment of an economy at full capacity. While a low unemployment rate is good, an unemployment rate below the natural rate of employment for an economy can lead to competition for workers and excess demand that can signify an overheated economy and bring inflation. An unemployment rate higher than the natural rate of unemployment means that the economy is not at full capacity and could be more productive. The Federal Reserve’s job is to keep unemployment near its natural rate, estimated to be around 3.5% for the US economy at the beginning of 2020. Over the past 2.5 years, many disruptions have likely pushed the short-termnoninflationary unemploymentrate materially higher.
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Lower Rates Give The Economy A Boost
Typically, when the federal funds rate decreases, so do the interest rates paid out on saving products, like savings accounts and certificates of deposit . But it also tends to lower the interest rates youll pay for debt products, like automobile loans, personal loans, and credit cards.
This makes it less worthwhile to save money, and more worthwhile to borrow money, which encourages people to save less and spend more. So when the economy needs some help, the Fed can lower rates to boost economic activity . Thats why the Fed lowered rates to zero in .
Upcoming Speeches And Meeting Notes
The November rate hike was a large and unanimous 0.75 percentage point increase in rates from policy-makers. However, the Fed has noted that it is likely approaching the maximum level of interest rates that it wants to see. Setting rates too high for too long, may cause unnecessary pain and, would start to materially increase the cost of servicing the relatively large national debt.
The minutes from the November Fed meeting and speeches from policy-makers may help shed light on where peak rates will land this cycle. The Fed still wants restrictive monetary policy, but it may achieve that by holding rates at a high level and waiting for the economic consequences, rather than a less sophisticated approach of continually raising rates until inflation falls.
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Economic Calendar: Federal Reserve Meeting Schedule
The good news is that theres a rough schedule for the federal reserve meeting so that we can hopefully anticipate a possible interest rate hike and plan accordingly. Economists often pay attention to announcements and interviews involving members of the FOMC in the weeks leading up to their meetings, in hopes of predicting what will happen. Sometimes the rate hikes are predictable, while other times theres no consensus on what kind of announcement will come out of the meeting.
This is the Federal Reserves meeting schedule for the rest of 2022:
Many economists, including those at the Bank of America, believe that a third consecutive 0.75% rate hike is coming this month as the FOMC looks to slow inflation. The Fed will consider all relevant data when meeting later this month.
Save More Spend & Borrow Less
As the Fed raises interest rates, aim to boost your savings rate and take advantage of higher yields. Do this by spending less and investing more.
Higher interest rates reward savers and investors while penalizing borrowers. Unless absolutely necessary due to an unexpected financial emergency or life change, dont take out additional debt once interest rates start their liftoff.
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How Does The Federal Funds Rate Work
The federal funds rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend excess reserves overnight. Law requires that banks must have a minimum reserve level in proportion to their deposits. This reserve requirement is held at a Federal Reserve Bank. When a bank has excess reserve requirements, it may lend these funds overnight to other banks that have realized a reserve deficit.
How The Fed Funds Rate Impacts The Economy
The federal funds rate doesnt just impact interest rates, though. Its impact can be felt throughout the economy.
Expectations regarding changes to the fed funds rate in the months and years ahead are a key factor in the movement of Treasury yields, on which many other forms of business, government and mortgage-backed credit are priced.
The stock market is also very sensitive to changes in the federal funds rate. When the Fed cuts rates, for instance, stock markets typically spike higher since the borrowing costs for public companies should fall, making it cheaper to expand their businesses and boost earnings.
When rates rise, though, equity markets may struggle more as borrowing becomes more expensive and lenders are rewarded with higher rates.
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Consider Leaving Old Low
Imagine you borrowed a mortgage at 3% interest when rates were low. A few years later, interest rates have risen, and now you can invest your cash in low-risk investments that pay 4%, 5%, 6% or more.
You have some extra cash each month, and youre trying to decide whether to put it toward paying down your mortgage or investing it elsewhere. Paying off your mortgage early is the ultimate risk-free investment because it offers you a guaranteed return equal to your interest rate. But if you could earn 6% on an extremely low-risk municipal bond, youd get double the return with only slightly more risk.
Why The Fed Raises Interest Rates
When the economy overheats, bubbles form.
Consider the housing bubble that burst in 2008. To oversimplify, mortgage loans were too cheap for too long. Several factors were responsible for this, including the way that investment banks packaged them for sale to other investors and the way that credit agencies underrated their risk. Low interest rates, particularly on adjustable-rate mortgages to borrowers with weak credit, made mortgage payments cheaper, so buyers could afford to spend more on houses. That artificially inflated home prices during the mid-2000s.
When rates went up, it pushed those adjustable mortgage payments skyward. Borrowers started defaulting, foreclosures started flooding the market with cheap homes, and housing prices collapsed. In other words, the bubble burst.
Avoiding bubbles and market crashes isnt the only reason the Fed raises interest rates to cool economic growth. They also raise interest rates to cool down inflation. They aim for a steady inflation rate of around 2% per year.
Out-of-control hyperinflation can ruin economies, companies, individuals savings, and entire countries. Even lower rates of inflation can seriously erode your long-term savings if you leave your money in cash and dont invest in inflation-resistant assets.
Ultimately, higher interest rates discourage borrowing, encourage saving, and cool down the economy bringing inflation down with them.
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Current Federal Funds Rate
The federal funds rate is a recommended targetbanks can ultimately negotiate their own rate when borrowing and lending from one another. Over the years, targets have varied widely depending on the economic outlookas high as 20% in the early 80s , and as low as 0.0% to 0.25% in 2020 as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, where it remains as of April 2021.
Why Is Inflation Still So High
Much of what we’re seeing in the economy right now can be attributed to the pandemic. In March 2020, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused the US economy to shut down. Millions of employees were laid off, many businesses had to close their doors and the global supply chain was abruptly put on pause. This caused the flow of goods produced and manufactured abroad and shipped to the US to cease for at least two weeks, and in many cases, for months, according to Pete Earle, an economist at the American Institute for Economic Research.
But the reduction in supply was met with increased demand as Americans started purchasing durable goods to replace the services they used prior to the pandemic, said Josh Bivens, director of research at the Economic Policy Institute. “The pandemic put distortions on both the demand and supply side of the US economy,” Bivens said.
Though the immediate impacts of COVID-19 on the US economy are easing, labor disruptions and supply-and-demand imbalances persist, including shortages in microchips, steel, equipment and other goods, causing ongoing slowdowns in manufacturing and construction. Unanticipated shocks to the global economy have made things worse — particularly subsequent COVID-19 variants, lockdowns in China and Russia’s war on Ukraine , according to the World Bank.
Some lawmakers have also accused corporations of seizing on inflation as an excuse to increase prices more than necessary, a form of price gouging.
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